BC Copper Rallied Then Retreated, Closing with a Bullish Doji Star [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the international copper 2505 contract opened at 73,080 yuan/mt, closing with a doji star, indicating a reduction in short positions. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 2505 contract started fluctuating upward after opening, with short covering and long entry, continuously pushing the price center higher. During the morning trading session, the price once climbed to a high of 74,290 yuan/mt, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, profit-taking by longs quickly followed, causing futures prices to plummet, erasing all intraday gains, and touching a low of 72,810 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 73,090 yuan/mt, up 0.29%. In terms of trading and open interest data, the day's trading volume was 16,155 contracts, with open interest reaching 11,251 contracts, a decrease of 154 contracts from the previous trading day.

On the macro front, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March was 92.9, the lowest since January 2021. This data suggests a slowdown in economic consumption, dampening the rise of the US dollar index. Meanwhile, due to expectations that the Trump administration will impose a 25% tariff on copper semis imports, market concerns about future import cost increases have led global copper suppliers and traders to rush to ship copper to the US before the tariff takes effect, driving COMEX copper prices to surge and boosting international copper prices significantly.

The SHFE copper 2505 contract closed at 82,000 yuan/mt. Based on the international copper 2505 contract price of 73,090 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 82,592 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2505 contract and the international copper 2505 contract is -592 yuan/mt, maintaining an inverted spread and narrowing compared to the previous trading day.